Cohen’s Gamble

New York Times columnist Roger “made me want to toss away my notebook” Cohen has lined himself up for an award of some kind with the gutsy and emotionally charged reporting he contributed from Iran (including after the media ban). His latest piece has new perspective via a fascinating interview with a regime-ist cleric. He bounces off this cleric’s statements to offer a compelling proposal for how America should handle the new (old) Iran.

“This is going to cause a huge gulf between generations,” he told me. “I was talking to a young woman who was a good friend of mine before the vote and she said she doesn’t respect me any more. She’s so angry she’s ready to die.”

Mahmoudi looked surprised. I’m not. Sentiment has shifted radically in Iran as multiple security forces deploy in defense of a lie. For Ayatollah Ali Khamouenei, the supreme leader, the question of how to win back support will in time arise. Enter America, the target of Great-Satanism but dear to most Iranians.

Cohen then reiterates what has become commonly decided knowledge, that the coup to rig the election was a rush job, a last-minute autocratic flourish of the desperate (and desperately conjoined) Ahmadinejad and Khamenei camps to resist slow yet inevitable reform and their ensuing marginalization.

With the gears of Big Change now in perpetual motion, reform for Iran is only a matter of time, and the Iranian regime so overshot its reaction to the election and demonstrations that it has instead accelerated the timetable for its demise. Cohen goes on to suggest that it is essential for Obama to hold back what might be the one thing the current regime could use to win back the support of its people: engagement with the West. (this is a very Ameri-centric analysis but it makes some sense)

Obama must leave them dangling for the foreseeable future. He should refrain indefinitely from talk of engagement.

To do otherwise would be to betray millions of Iranians who have been defrauded and have risked their lives to have their votes count. To do otherwise would be to allow Khamenei to gloat that, in the end, what the United States respects is force. To do otherwise would be to embrace the usurpers.

The slow arc of moral justice is fine but Iran is gripped by the fierce urgency of now.

and

the Iran of today is not the Iran of three weeks ago; it is in volatile flux from without and within. Its Robespierres are running amok. Obama must do nothing to suggest business as usual. Let Ahmadinejad, he of the bipolar mood swings, fret and sweat. Let him writhe in the turbid puddle of his self-proclaimed “justice” and “ethics.”

The only thing I disagree with Cohen about is when he then suggests that Ali Larijani, the leader of the Iranian Parliament, might be an acceptable compromise should Ahmadinejad be removed from power (so Khamenei can retain his). That might be so, but only temporarily. From everything I have read and the people I have talked to, a new more moderate President for Iran is not what’s now demanded from the rooftops each night, not even the self admittedly “blank canvas” Mousavi. All the people had wanted was their vote, but now it’s gone beyond that. Now they want another fair election and for their will to not only be respected, but for that will to be the true ruler of their government. There is no longer an acceptable equilibrium for partial democracy in Iran.

These voters woke up June 12th understanding that they were voting for incremental change, not revolution. They were content to see a new President take Iran, via baby step, towards the rest of the world. But by taking away their voice they have now only grown louder, and their unrest will not end until the Islamic Republic becomes a real Republic – that just happens to also be Islamic. They have made a down payment for that future in blood. It might take months, it might take a generation, but the new arc for Iran has been permanently set. The faith of Islam, the power of youth and education, and the suddenly wide-open arms of the rest of the world – will make sure of it.

Let the Usurpers Writhe (New York Times) (and a must read)

 

Comments

I don’t have comments turned on here at MightierThan – I have always kind of hated them on other blogs, not because I think readers can’t have interesting thoughts on interesting posts, they can and usually do, but because since its inception the Internet has provided too many people the unnecessary opportunity to be someone online they could never get away with being in person, usually someone much more rude and disagreeable, sometimes even hateful, racist, or worse. I think interaction is important, and I think tolerance of random trolls should be encouraged, but I still can’t bring myself to allow them on some corner of the net I have tried to carve out on my own. (7/11 update: read here for my complete 180)

However on YouTube, and more specifically on the Iran videos I have posted, the comment culture is fascinating to watch, both inspiring and infuriating. I have tried to curate with care, deleting obviously hateful posts, or ones so ignorant no one should have to waste their time reading them – but the community does a pretty good job policing itself with the excellent comment rating system that YouTube employs. I wish more sites would copy it.

Mostly I’m amazed how many people think videos of the Iran ordeal are the best place to bring up how much they dislike Obama, and it occurs to me that people’s distrust and perhaps hatred of him is so searing that any soapbox will do if it’s a chance to let out their frustration. It’s like they’re convinced they’re watching a magic show that’s effect is so offensive they must stand on their chair and shout about hidden rabbits. But it’s not a magic show, and there is no rabbit – so any sensible audience member who’s paying attention thinks they are crazy. This just enrages them further.

While in my heart I wish Obama and America could swoop in and fix all of Iran’s problems, that is an irrational wish. Obama has done very well setting the tone for America’s reaction, for as we learned in Iraq – you can’t invent someone else’s democracy – they have to earn it for themselves or else they will never be able to employ it successfully.

 

Change Has Many Faces

If the Supreme Court had thrown another tie to John McCain and the GOP last November, how would young Americans have reacted?

Cross Posted @ goMYD